Situation now - 2 discovered fields Growler/Snatcher with some promising lesser discoveries that have not been appraised (Wirraway, Tigercat etc.). Market has rightly or wrongly had a long break to value their 40% of these assets.
They record a 3D over the fields and all the dirt in between. It is proported that the sands can be mapped and there are lots of look-alike exploration locations. Unrisked gross recoverable oil is advertised as 21-40 mmbls (note this is a new play which depending on which geo you talk to is 'silly' or 'brilliant' so risked numbers might be 0-20 mmbls).
If ITC sees a lot of risk in the wells and the buyer is keen (at say MC x2 or 3) then the time to sell is now. A couple of dry holes and the moment will pass.
If ITC is a true believer in the trend then will want a lot more (MC x 4, 5? or more). Unlikely anyone will pay this at the moment so ITC would have to wait for at least some initial wells to sell.
Given that production and drilling is slipping (4 qtr 2010?) my thought is that MC x3 would get an official tick and MC x2 would get a look in. If they do not get an offer they let the clock tick and drill later in the year but I find it hard to believe that long break and bad market would not tempt a party to test the waters.
ITC Price at posting:
5.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
