There was a Great Depression and a Global Financial Crisis (GFC) that never did actually end. The IMF's Christine Legarde now says we should get ready for the Global Economic Storm (GES).
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-economic-storm-horizon-imf-055418587.html
Of course the more we prepare for this inevitability the tighter lending becomes. Reduced lending will IMHO be the trigger event that pushes the other dominoes.
The only situation in which the IMF would want to be seen to stoke fuel on the fire (as Christine's statement will) is near certainty that some of the flagged risk events will happen along with near certainty that the realisation of one risk event will trigger the others.
I don't need mathematical formulas to say that non-performing loans become bad debts in near zero growth or recessionary conditions.
cheers
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