In my view It's the future risks because of how the banks are focusing the risk to extract profits and if that will lead to sad news for them and i suppose us in general. Bank SH will believe it if they see it, not many will bail out or go short before a possible change in trend thats discussed in the IMF report.
12. The banking sector has remained highly profitable, but a rising share of its lending portfolio has become concentrated in the residential mortgage market. Banks’ total return-on-equity is high relative to international peers, and nonperforming loans remain very low. However, residential real estate lending represents about 60 percent of total bank loans following a substantial shift in portfolio composition over the past couple of decades (away from business lending). Several major banks have also divested themselves of business activities viewed as ancillary in the current environment, such as wealth management and life insurance. In this manner, the balance sheets of the large Australian banks have become more similar, increasing their risk correlation. Turbulence in the real estate sector could expose banks as a group to substantial losses. Stress tests using an adverse scenario found that the major banks would experience large credit losses and significant reductions in their capital levels, although the latter remain above regulatory thresholds for CET1.8
