i'm out, page-5

I was a bit surprised at the idea of someone selling TXN and buying SEA. From my calculations, TXN has somewhat more upside potential. Here's my reasoning:

1. Both stocks are joined at the hip. If TXN's results this month are good, SEA shares will also rise. If SEA's update this week is viewed favourably by the market, TXN's shares will also rise in near proportion (which might be happening right now).

2. If the SEA-TXN deal is off, it would more likely be because TXN got a better offer (although I think that is very unlikely at this late date). Thus, TXN shares would rise and SEA shares would do relatively worse.

3. Someone cleverly mentioned that SEA could break the deal, but this is less likely because the deal favours SEA. EF is a valuable asset at a serious discount price.

4. Talon currently has no value in the equation (TXN shares are pegged about half of SEA shares). Everyone has good reason to be skeptical about TXN's mgt, but you can't lose money on what is currently a free stock. Also, call me an optimist, but I have an inkling that the TXN debacle may have given Foss more control to actually put his years of experience to work when Talon is unleashed.

FYI: I hold both SEA and TXN shares in about equal value, dating several months before the deal was announced.