In my view, the simplest way to think about it is:1. If PEP11 is...

In my view, the simplest way to think about it is:

1. If PEP11 is worth $4bn (big ask and could be worth nil, but if there is 13 TCF, the range is possibly $4bn to $15bn)
then BPH will be capped at c. $930m and MMR at c. $2bn (assuming $4bn)

2. if the above holds true, the share price should theretically increase by 27x (35m to 1bn) for BPH and 16x (126m to 2bn) for MMR

3. in realtity it wont increase the full amount as a) insto investors wont necessarily pile in to push the price up - at the moment retail shareholders are the incremental buyers not insto buyers b) there will still be a year or so between first drill and production, with associated approvals needed pre production, and hence associated risk c) it is more likely to increase by this multiple when a % of advent is sold to a strategic buyer (eg Indian oil company)

4. I agree there is additional value for the PDF tax status for MMR, but like when you value franking credits, you discount this value in the hands of investors (the 30-47% tax saving/benefit isnt received day 1, but rather over time, so gets less valuable in present day terms, so you cant say BPH is worth (1-30%) or (1-47%) of MMR (all other things equal) and unlike the franking credits valuation, theres also a downside with PDF status in that capital losses cannot be used to offset capital gains. Id say a PDF fund should have a 5-10% premium on a non-PDF fund.

5. In my view, markets do get these things wrong (particularly where there is limited research on the stock) but may prefer MMR over BPH given its pure energy exposure, diversified energy portfolio, PDF status (although i dont think there is much in this) and greater size...all which objectively justify some additional value above BPH but if you asked 10 different people you would get 10 different answers as to the value of these benefits...hence my personal view is taht if you are in MMR or BPH for PEP11 the leverage effect under point 2 is what is interesting, but also what makes BPH more risky that MMR

6. My thoughts only. I hope everyone has some success on this. Fingers crossed!!