Bruce,With respect, this is what I have learned: have a look at...

Bruce,

With respect, this is what I have learned: have a look at the AUD/USD charts going back to 2001, or so. Compare them with the AUD Gold price over that period.

My read: when the Aussie appreciates strongly against the greenback, AUD Gold moves largely sideways. When the AUD/USD moves sideways or down, AUD Gold appreciates.

As far as where we'd be if the stockmarket weren't booming...well, who knows. (Where would you be? How many issues have you successfully shorted? Are your best "short-term" trades based on rising or falling prices?).

What I do know is that, without the commodities boom, there wouldn't have been such interest in the Aussie dollar. Since 2001, less interest in the Aussie has meant a higher AUD Gold price.

At present, the RBA can't keep the AUD down, even though they've been pumping the money supply up by between 11% and 14% p.a. for the past few years. When interest in the AUD starts to wane, all this extra liquidity will come home to roost and that's when the AUD Gold price will head higher again.

Finally, I'll note that you've mentioned 2003-2005 and your call from a year ago for longer than expected consolidation, but you don't talk much about 2005 to mid-2006, when AUD Gold went from $550 to $900 (and AUD/USD went from $0.80 to $0.70). Just curious - did you call that one? It sure surprised me.

But, then, I was buying and holding gold companies based on my long-term fundamental view, so it was a pleasant surprise, which I didn't miss out on.

The Aussie is at its highest level against the USD and Yen for a very, very long time (middling against the Euro). On the chart, it looks stretched tight as a drum.

When it corrects, we'll see whether or not my theory on a higher AUD Gold price holds true, or not.