As I recall the board of Hscope only warmed to the deal when the bid price reached 5.75, which represented a premium of 27 %. Anyhow, it seems meaningless for the IE to compare CST with an investment that is no longer available. I haven't owned shares before that are subject to a takeover but had imagined it would be more exciting than this and an offer recommended by the board would be attractive by gut feeling alone. My feeling is that with the dividends finally starting to flow the CST sp will rise to 3.55 anyway within the next 1-2 years. I would like more specifics on the generic competition they are referring to, as surely the InTube patent is a strong barrier to this until 2023 in the developed world at least. The IE report lacks scientific detail related to the Quantiferon method which suggests they don't understand it. For example on page 16 it says 'interferon gamma release assays are a technique typically used in testing for infectious diseases, most commonly that of latent tuberculosis'. This is incorrect because IGRA's have only recently been developed for testing and their applications are far wider than infectious diseases (they can be used for any condition where the immune system is involved such as cancer and autoimmune diseases). AR himself described Quantiferon as 'breakthrough technology' in the Qiagen press release. Sure, the basic patent on the whole blood IGRA method has expired, or is expiring, but in practice the In-Tube arrangement makes competition in the area unlikely. If CST would spend more on R and D then future competition is also less likely. There are lots of unknowns associated with CST, but there are also some strong knowns (eg a vast evidence-base supporting the use of IGRAs for latent TB testing and no state-of-the-art competitor to Quantiferon). In my experience most investors steer clear of biotech shares and those who do buy them for the longterm are relatively sophisticated and aware of the risks. Just because no competing bids have emerged doesn't mean 3.55 is attractive, because the value of cutting edge technology is often not appreciated. This 'takeover' has surely been a doozy from the outset, starting from when they called the initial announcement to us Bomber. It is hard to see how Qiagen can raise the offer much in light of the IE's valuation.
CST Price at posting:
$3.19 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
