As CSG seems to be somewhat out of fashion at the moment and I'm watching a few of my old faithfuls take a battering I had a left-field thought with regard to AOE and would be interested to know whether any AOE followers might give this some credence.
I've been in AOE since sub 0.30 days, trading a few along the way but accumulating steadily. Very impressed by their team and performance to date. I recall that when they spun out BOW the rationale was that BOW's future activities were (then) considered to be too peripheral to where AOE saw itself headed in future. (LOL in light of BOW's recent CSG successes!).
AOE went on to articulate and execute a grand plan which went beyond domestic and overseas exploration to power generation and infrastructure, such that it seems no longer appropriate to value the company solely on reserves. It is increasingly a hybrid, the parts of which I expect would command different multiples.
As a hybrid (with Shell having a significant stake in its domestic reserves) it is perhaps less attractive to potential acquirers, each of whom may find some elements attractive and others less so.
I was wondering therefore whether AOE might be more valuable if it spun off its 'peripheral' infrastructure / power generating activities, while retaining significant interests in order to continue to control the upstream and downstream elements.
I suspect that AOE's aspirations may ultimately be to become a major end-to-end energy company but this might not necessarily preclude a strategy that gave those who attributed most value to each of the parts an opportunity to step up.
Any views.....?
AOE Price at posting:
$3.35 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
