Ok, since so far nobody has said anything designed to help Dub in making sense of his reply, let me fire the first salvo aimed at clarifying some things. But before I go there allow me to say that the economist enslaving him seems to be no other than Ludwig von Mises, one of the chief ideologues of the Austrians, a school whose main propagandists seem to be concentrated at a think tank called the Mises Institute, the 9th most influential think tank in the USA and, if I am not mistaken, the number one among young American conservatives.
The Institute's economic theories depict any government intervention as destructive, whether through welfare, inflation, taxation, regulation, or whatever. It would be interesting to find who are the private donors funding the Mises institute, anybody has any idea?
Anyway, this is Dub's starting point and all the rest emanates from here.
"Like TA, FA becomes fairly unreliable when trillions of new dollars are created and injected into the market …. instead of causing direct price inflation of good...." In other words, if it was not for the Fed's nefarious intervention distorting everything Dub would have been multi millionaire by now thanks to TA and/or FA."
What do some mainstream economists say about FA and TA? Well, they simply say that, I quote, it is pointless to search for undervalued stocks or to try to predict trends in the market through either fundamental or technical analyses because the markets are efficient. In other words if you are consistently making money above what an index fund is getting then it must be not thanks to FA or TA but either due to luck or inside knowledge.
"What is 'Efficient Market Hypothesis - EMH'
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory whereby share prices reflect all information and consistent alpha generation is impossible. Theoretically, neither technical nor fundamental analysis can produce risk-adjusted excess returns, or alpha, consistently and only inside information can result in outsized risk-adjusted returns. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase
undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or
market timing, and the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments."
If you found this informative then I may come back tomorrow with some more considerations.
