Not too much TA stuff shown here on ICQ so thought I would throw in some amongst the 'perceived' FA threads.
Sure, this summary and chart(below) has a LOT of
hindsight shown BUT it also shows that just sometimes(as we TA'ers claim)
History can repeat and should again do so. I apologise for what appears to be a "rainbow/spaghetti" presentation but there are a lot of "clues", past and present, to point out. The chart is a Daily that covers ~ 30mths(to pick up the 2012 Swing Low and the 2014H).
Firstly, note the simple Fibonacci retracement values of that range and how many minor swing points(so far) have, within acceptable 'ball parks' levels, provided support and then resistance since the high. Our recent low (59c) was just 1c above the 76.4% retrace level(rl) and the previous 2 Bear lows were just 2c(on an open/close basis) above/below the 61.8% rl. The subsequent rally from the 1st of those two lows just failed to reach the 38.2%rl line by 3c; the rally from the 2nd one stalled near the 50%rl.
Secondly, I have drawn a number of what I call "Decision Lines"(DL's...thick orange, red and yellow drawn in that order) on the chart; then a series of //'s to "test" if their 'vibrations' appear to regularly pick up both Historical and then Future swing points. Now, as it turns out both the orange and the red DL's are // to each other anyway...further strengthening my claim of these being "DL's". The more recent yellow DL assisted in creating the most recent "hot_spot" potential low(in conjunction with an orange // and just above the 76.4%rl remember.
Thirdly, looking at a
leading momentum oscillator(CCI50), and focusing on classical TA "DIVERGENCE" signals, note, firstly, the the thick yellow and thick blue lines. Once established the extensions of those very often provides us with DL's on the oscillator itself to give potential intermediate swing levels that may or may not(often) come from Chart level resistance. Of course it is better if SP action is approaching apparent important Chart Levels or trendline intersections when the oscillator DL's are 'in sync' to give weight(comfort) to a possible swing point(see red arrows for examples). Secondly, note the clear + ve Divergence(shown in pink) created prior to the Dec. '14 Low and the resultant 66% rally; now we had a similar
pitched SP action and CCI50 +ve Divergence running into our most recent low as well(History repeating, right!). 66% rally just starting ... well maybe?
At least we have started to rally! AND its come from a potential "hot_spot" identified by use of some useful TA tools as explained above(no FA just TA). Next two little hurdles to determine 'strength' of this premature rally probably will be governed by the breaks/rejections at the blue lines on the CCI50 chart(see white arrows ... the 1st one to the left is a "history" arrow, right). On the PRICE chart I have placed two piggy-backed purple arrows ... that's the intial S/T price objective.
Finally, just a disclosure; as you may have gathered I'm more of a swing_trader than investor ATM(best for current market conditions I personally think) and adjust as market action permits or tells me otherwise.
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