Buggar--------read onGunns determinedWE'LL know by tonight how...

Buggar--------read on

Gunns determined

WE'LL know by tonight how Gunns is looking in its plan to take over management of the nine big timber schemes started by the defunct Great Southern Group in 1998. The deadline for proxies is 11am today and our mail is that unless something pretty dramatic happened over the weekend, Gunns will get across the required 50 per cent threshold in the first six schemes, but drop short in the last three schemes dated 2004, 2005 and 2006.

This is serious stuff for the 33,000 or so "grower investors" in the schemes, since the alternative is a bank-sponsored wind-up. There's been a major campaign to get investors to vote since, unlike what usually happens with a poll, their votes very much matter. The reason the last three schemes may not make it is because liquidator Ferrier Hodgson is sitting on a big pile of votes it can lodge in the first six schemes, totalling in some cases 25 per cent, but it has none in the last three.

It hasn't said what it will do with them but it will probably vote them in favour. Receiver Tony McGrath has talked former ASIC chairman Alan Cameron into chairing the meeting in Sydney on Wednesday, where Cameron has said he will vote all proxies he holds in favour of going with Gunns.

Gunns has the right to walk if it doesn't get across the line in all schemes, but we understand it's ready to negotiate or even front a judge if there's a good voting turnout in the schemes that don't get there.

The Tasmanian timber group's main worry is making sure that a successful vote will allow it to get clear title to the job of being replacement Responsible Entity (R/E). There was a case in WA called Alpha Wealth in which the R/E replacement was voted in, but some constitutional complication prevented it from taking over.

Our sources are confident that a judge can make a positive ruling and Gunns' legal people are likely to seek a ruling in the immediate aftermath of the vote, to make sure.