i see value at $4.58 - down 27% today, page-8

This represents a great opportunity for any potential aquirer to pick up a decent first up stake while volumes are high and prices low.

Downer has been a potential play for a while now and although it would be seen as opportunistic, it would not surprise me that someone (UGL or LEI) bobs up on the register.

If downer report in late july/early Aug, full year NPAT as expected, with no more writedown surprises the stock will rebound significantly.

In the absence of a potential aquirer raising a stake, fundies will probably only plow back in once a level of certainty returns.

Management cred will be hurt in the short term and they would not want anymore shocks before the full year results.

Full year PE now at 7.7 times on reaffirmed guidance, excluding so called one off's. So on that basis, good cash generation, good forward order book, acceptable debt levels, and (up until now) a respected management all mean todays sell off was overdone.

Will it rebound? Insto selling, hedgies shorting and margin calls have to wash through first.

The horse has well and truly bolted if you want to sell IMO, and I would be surprised to see further weakness.

A rally, should the overall market behave, is a 70% probability IMO.

Goodluck all.