i have a good feel about psh, page-7

GPASAS,Pichmac,

It is nice to be able to engage with someone with the deep industry insight that GPA clearly has.

1) On the Environmental Front;
GPA offers some critique of the US Trona industry and its effect on the birdlife of Searle valley. The ornithology of Searle Valley is is not a subject that I can claim any knowledge of so I will accept the points made.
My only interest in the environment impact of Soda Ash has been restricted to Australia. For many years Penrice dumped CaCl in the river adjacent to the plant, I understand this has now been stopped. I am not sure how the neighbours feel about the dust or the rail haulage noise.
I understand the Osborne site also housed a Mercury Cell Clorine plant at one time. I don't know if the site will eventually require expensive remediation. Mercury is nasty.
The other environmental issue which may affect the finances of PSH is the shape of an eventual carbon tax. PSH is energy intensive, it uses a lot of coal,gas and electricity. An Australian carbon tax will give an advantage to imported natural product.

2)Pich suggests that PSH may represent good value now that its price is in the 20s. I don't think so.
I expect PSH to still be cashflow negative. It will require more real money to flow into it, I don't see where this will come from. Revaluing the 'stock' at the quarry isn't going to help.
To change the price momentum PSH would have to change the sentiment. This can take two forms, either spin or substance. Mere spin is going to be difficult because of the recent announcements. Substance can be in the form of a yield or growth story. Yield will be hard if cash flow is still negative. I don't see growth of volume or price.

My expectation is that we will see the shareprice fall quickly through the 20s. If I had any shares I would be selling.

Bacci