GPASAS,Thank you for your well considered and eloquent...

GPASAS,
Thank you for your well considered and eloquent response.
I relish the opportunity to discuss PSH in depth. Perhaps our interchange will be useful and entertaining for others.

I will give you my view on (A) the current shareprice, (B)prognosis and then (C) answer each of your points.

A)In my view the current shareprice is unsustainable. It still represents a good opportunity for the Mums and Dads to get out with some of their money.If I had shares I would get out now. You will note that I have held this view and been proven right for some time.

B)I expect the price to continue to fall and go through the 20s quite quickly. I expect the price to then level out at somewhere between 7 and 11c. The shareprice will hover at that level due to a combination of being a 'penny punt', a recapitalisation play and not being worth the hassle of crystallising the loss.
The disappointment that instos and punters have suffered will mean that there would have to be a compelling story for people to believe in a turn around. This was a yield stock; it now neither yields nor grows.
Any urgent capital requirement could be fatal. I don't think banks would want to lend more and equity would be hard to raise. It should be remembered that this company is cashflow negative and I don't see any reason for that to change. The ship is headed for the rocks.

C) In answer to your points; I suggested those interested in the stock read my earlier summary of PSH's prospects to follow this best.
1)I agree that the bariers to entry are too high for anyone else to build a Solvay based plant. Few if any of these have been built in recent decades, there is a good reason for that. World Soda Ash production has been steadily moving to natural Trona based production. The competition is from Trona.
2) I disagree that PSH is 'beautifully placed'. The communities at Osborne and Barossa will be less tolerant of their industrial neighbour as time goes on. The railway will probably need substantial upgrade and the quarry is being depleted. Penrice's glory days in my opinion are long gone.
3) It is unfortunate that PSH is a price taker, it is worse that successive owners have squeezed out all available cost savings since ICI left. I imagine that they have also run down the plant condition.
4)I don't see the growth potential. The price ceiling is set by the price of imported Soda Ash. The volume is limited by the size of the market and the plant capacity. The capacity has been optimised for years.
5)The gearing is precarious. One can fiddle with a theoretical net equity, this would include the quarry 'stock' which some might consider overburden. The facts are the market cap and the debt level; looks sick to me.
6) I see downside, I see no upside. We can all see the chart and momentum. There is no catalyst to change the price trajectory.

The sole thing this plant has in its favour is its dedicated and skillful staff wo are keeping it producing. However even their best efforts won't be able to avoid an end which I see as inevitible.

Regards
Bacci