I agree that the world production is not increasing nor are the Solvay based production decreasing. The reality is that the market is in balance and that essentially the lowest common denominator is Trona based pricing. Thats what my research found. The strange factor is that neither or even both have not been able to increase the prices to generate more profit.
I personally dont think that Amcor would run to purchase the plant. I think it is just as easy to get imported stock at reasonable pricing. However even if they would consider purchasing the plant I dont think there would be money on the table for shareholders.
You acknowledge that the stock is under relentless selling pressure. I would have thought that that was LCE as they did not secure a boardroom revolt. However as a significant holder they would have had to declare by now. Who then would be selling this stock down and why?
I was fully intent on buying at up to 39c and now I am extremely happy I didnt. I made good money last year buying in low 70's and selling in mid 90's, so I was looking for another shot at it.
The problem as I see it is the large labour pool required. The fact that you have to operate near optimum. That in fact most Solvay process plants have to do the same. Age of plant and no way can you stump up $2bn as you cannot get a return. World market is at best stable and most likely in decline.
stock only to be on register.
PSH Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
