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14/11/16
23:14
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Originally posted by danginvestor
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MRM's business won't immediately recover when oil recovers, but MRM's share price definitely will.
I think the market isn't that idiotic to wait until both oil recoveries and recoveries hitting MRM's books to then raise its stock price to equal its sales or its NTA.
Let say MRM were to raise more capital. What's the harm in that really. More dilution for investors who can't or won't take up their rights issue. But for those that can, they'd just be buying in at a cheaper price, buying a stronger business. So I think the concern over CR is a bit overblown. That's not saying MRM's share price won't go lower after the CR.
So with CR and MRM's own operating cash, will it go bankrupt? Probably not.
Will oil price and further exploration, the development of projects that's been shelved... they will come back online. When? Say two to three years?
What will happen to MRM's share price when oil is up and new projects are back online? Its share price will at least triple current levels... if not the full NTA-backing... which won't be the current $1.76ps but some $2.50 as those non-cash writeoffs ought to really be put back up.
So unless we can find a business with a very high chance of tripling in 3 years; or can time it fine enough that we can just pick it the moment before or soon after its rise.... if we can't be sure of that, I think MRM is the way.
I mean, if all is going well, a company like MRM won't be selling at 17 cents on a dollar.
This is not a dying business with no future folks. It's a good business suffering industry headwinds.
Having said all that, probably wait til nov 24th when more of the same bad news are repeated with the AGM... that will knock the price down a bit - I'm guessing.
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Forgive me if I'm wrong but MRM brought a whole lot of boats at the top of the market with a fair bit of debt and now can't sell that capacity.
Re the 17 cents in the dollar, where did that come from?? Was it primarily driven by MRMs valuation of their boat fleet?
If it was the valuation of the fleet of boats, it might be prudent to look at how many times other industry players such as Gulfmark have impaired their fleet and how much? And how many times and how much have MRM impaired their fleet by?
What's your assessment on the current boards skill set?