Yes I did some very similar figures the other day . Should move...

First 2 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
tangs

1,246 Posts.

88

05/02/18

19:30

Post #: 30835072
Share

Originally posted by mmoore1957 ↑

HRR's track record has cast a cloud over it which has obscured the strong fundamentals inherent in this company particularly at current Zn prices. I've updated their DFS (ASX release 29/6/16) to highlight the golden beast within.
A. UPDATED HRR NPV:
1. DFS Zn price = US$1.01/lb. New price = US$1.60/lb
2. DFS Cu price = US$3.00/lb. New price = US$3.20/lb
3. DFS Pb price = US$0.91. New price = US$1.20/lb
4. DFS AUDUSD = 0.71. New rate = 0.80
5. DFS Post tax NPV(8%) = A$207m. NEW Post tax NPV(6%) = A$515m
B. UPDATED HRR VALUATIONS:
1. New FCF = A$110m
2. FCF Valuation = A$110m x 10 times = A$1100m OR A$4.18 PFDS (HRR's current LOM = 9.2 yrs. I'm assuming they can increase LOM>10 yrs so using FCF multiplier = 10 times OK)
3. New NPV = A$515m
4.NPV = A$515m/263m shares = A$1.96 PFDS

So HRR's valuation range is A$1.96 to A$4.18. Once in full production and all the BFS assumptions have been validated I would expect the SP to move closer towards the top end of the valuation range.
HRR's current SP = A$0.80 so there does appear to be opportunity for a significant re-rate in HRR's SP within the next 12 months.
Please DYOR

Expand

Yes I did some very similar figures the other day .
Should move in that $2-4 direction all going well but whether it gets all the way there in 12 months remains to be seen .
Quite a bit of upside I think with LOM so if managed well should go higher than that in say 3-4 years !
Franked divi's at that stage would also help and can't see after a few years why they can't !

HRR Price at posting: 77.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

BTH

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

AN1

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

GRL

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

EDE

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

ME1

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

AUN

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

LYN

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

BNL

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado

There are more pages in this discussion • 126 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add HRR (ASX) to my watchlist

Yes I did some very similar figures the other day . Should move...

Top Stories

Bigtincan's Board backs Investcorp offer: Why a NASDAQ listing could be game-changing

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 46, 2024

CuFe sells its Crossroads gold royalty to Northern Star for $4M cash; says better than waiting for mine launch

To make modern missiles, you need 3D Printing. And in that gold rush, Amaero is selling shovels

Week 46 Wrap: Copper hits 2mth low as Trump threatens net zero pace; US rally fades; HotCopper’s picks

NT Gov't delivers environmental approval for Empire Energy's Beetaloo Carpentaria pilot gas play

Banshee's historic trenches prove rich in antimony and gold for GDM

Cyclone signs MOU with Vale for development of Iron Bear play

InhaleRX gains approval for clinical trial to test non-opioid therapy for cancer pain

Blue Star Helium sees approval for five more wells at 'Galactica/Pegasus' project in Colorado