HRR 1.69% 5.8¢ heron resources limited

HRR - gonna make money or not?

  1. 757 Posts.
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    Had a tough run this share but are we through the worst and about to hit better times? Well I thought I'd have a wee look so I prepared a forecast to get some idea of what the future holds. I used HRR's BFS dated 29/6/16 and updated it for product prices, exchange rate & financing struture. Here it is:

    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
    0     Units   2019   2020
    1 Assumptions:      
    2 Mine Life Years 10  
    3 Commercial Production Declared Date 1/1/2019  
    4 Production - Zn   mmlbs   44   88
    5 Market Price - ZN   US$/lb   1.50   1.50
    6 Production - Cu mmlbs 11 22
    7 Market Price - Cu US$/lb 3.00 3.00
    8 Production - Pb mmlbs 13 26
    9 Market Price - Pb US$/lb 1.15 1.15
    10 AUDUSD     0.78   0.78
    11 C1 Cash Cost before BPC   A$/lb Zn   1.50   1.50
    12 Royalties   %   4.0   4.0
    13 CTR   %   30 30
    14 Revenue Tax Losses A$m 97  
    15 Development Capital   A$m   156  
    16 Sustaining Capital A$m   -10   -26
    17 Results:      
    18 Revenue A$m 146 292
    19 EBITDA A$m 70 144
    20 PAT A$m 52 97
    21 FCF (Free cash flow) A$m 53 95
    22 Valuation:      
    23 EBITDA MULTIPLIER = 6 Times A$ per FDS 0.19 0.41
    24 PAT MULTIPLIER - 11 Times A$ per FDS 0.25 0.49
    25 FCFMULTIPLIER - 10 Times A$ per FDS 0.18 0.49
    26 AVERAGE A$ per FDS 0.20 0.47

    Hence based on the above my SP forecasts for HRR are:
    1. 2019: HRR's SP = A$0.20
    2. 2020: HRR's SP - A$0.47
    The current HRR SP = A$0.074 so it looks like there is potential for a re-rating at some point in the future.
    Please remember this is all my stuff and before you invest you need to DYOR.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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