Agree with your valuations if a discovery of this quantity. We all have a 32% chance to be paper millionaires. You can't seriously believe MEOs "independent" presentation re the 32% pos.
They are not going to slap a 5% chance on it when they are farming down from 70% to a 20% free carry. If it really was a 32% chance, MEO would be holding on to that 70% so tightly and doing their own capital raising then give MOG some easy billions.
The chances for wildcats are less then 20%. In general about 1 in 8 (12.5%). Even an appraisal well would be lucky to be 1 in 3 ie 32%. Also if their is a discovery what is the 12tcf resource estimate probability p10? or not enough info and just 12tcf sounded like a nice figure. How is the 12tcf derived? I would say discoveries of this quantity are more like 1 in 25 drills.
Anway to complete the valuation scenarios, when it is derisked (ie plugged and abandoned) then 15% of nothing is nothing as west2 suggest.
MOG Price at posting:
22.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
