A cap raising at around 30% of the pre-issue price which hugely increases the number of share is a very destabilising event (always) and that the sp has gone below the issue price is not at all surprising. I guessed about 20% below but that was wrong. It's now around 25% below.
Question is, how much further? It's hovering around .14/.15 at which point sellers have slowed to a trickle, but buying is very very weak also - presumably in the expectation of it going lower still as some have prophesied, plus most enhusiasts for this stock bought in at the cap raising and won't want to apply extra cash to it.
As captain has pointed out, in the end the buyers equals the sellers and it's the relative expectation of these that sets the sp. These depend on who is selling.
Who is selling at below the issue price? Could be the underwriters who want to get rid of the excess shares they bought (quite probable), others who've overcommitted and want some cash back and then those who get "shaken out" because they get worried about losing too much and dump or have set conservative stop loss limits. Most of these have probably sold by now.
If the company has reasonable fundamentals (and while still very speculative for this company they are not too bad now) there will be a bounce back once the trickle of sellers at the low price runs out. However, the bounce back is unlikely to exceed the issue price for some time unless there is some startling good news because the closer it gets to the issue price more holders will be tempted to cut losses and get out.
Guess - it's close to its low point now - there will still be some occasional sellers at around .14 - .145, maybe even a few at a lower price but unless a large holder or shorter steps in to sell (is it worth their while? - doubtful) or some really bad news this is probably it. Within a few weeks, maybe even a lot less, there should (if it follows usual patterns) be a bounce back of a few cents.
If you are brave and have spare cash, not a bad time to buy imo!
All just opinion.. formulated on my interpretation of the psychology of the market.
TAM Price at posting:
10.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
