USD dollar appreciation is forcing a wave of inflation in the cost of herbicides and fertilizer. Bad news for those farmers in traditional exporting regions that are experiencing currency devaluations, spiralling borrowing costs and general deterioration in domestic economies, eg Russia, Ukraine, Argentina.
This will herd producers towards lower input cost regime crops. For example, in Ukraine likely to see a big swing to barley/wheat away from corn. Corn is a big input user with larger logistics costs at/post harvest.
I'm selling wheat/barley atm and expect reasonable global crop. A lot of high production acres being won away from sugar and cotton to wheat globally. Think a lot of corn acres will move to soy too. Dark horse actually could be corn because sugar losing acres to soy. Smaller feed base for ethanol.
The GM issue is complicating trade. The recent feed barley spike has largely been a swing away from GM corn in Asia by some feeders.
