Yeah i realize la nina cause unusual weather patterns making some places wetter then normal and others dryer also hotter or colder and agree anything that lowers wheat production will be good for wheat prices.
Production costs vary greatly depending on many factors. We have some crops that (guessing) cost $125 on the low side and upto $250 on the high side. Some paddocks were plowed, some sprayed up to 4 times (weed control pre sowing, pre emerging, broadleaf during growing, black oat/grass control duting growing) some got urea before and or after sowing. Then its going to cost another $30-$40 per tonne to harvest and cart grain.
We've had a super season for our area and crops should yield between 2.5-3 tonnes. An average year here we would be looking at 2-2.5 tonnes. Last year with the dry finish we averaged 1.3 tonnes.
Todays prices at the site we will cart to are $153 for ASW, $171 for APW and up to $206 if lucky enough to get some aph2. We will make money this year because of our yields but in an average year we might be just in the money but a year like last season at current prices we would be on the phone to the bank taking out more loans. Barley prices are looking at around $120 for f1. We have around 1800 acres to barley and we might break even.
Im bullish on wheat because it has to be the bottom imo. Farmers just cant and wont grow it for lower prices. Im not saying that it will spike dramatically because it wont but it isn't going to get any cheaper than the current prices so it only has one way to go.
