Hi YC,
Most of SA has that much subsoil moisture (Mallee, far west, upper north excluded) that even another half inch will still see an average crop come off. But yes, if the rainfall is below or well below average, that number I mentioned will come off quickly. Frosts are the other wildcard, as it's so hard to estimate until you get into it and it has been a bad year in that regard.
Price-wise, the only thing working for growers will be a relatively low exportable surplus, which could mean some pops at various ports, as exporters fight to secure early shipping slots. Already, payment terms on cash contracts are crunching in and I would expect deferred payment terms to be quite attractive this season, especially for those exporters borrowing in AUD. All good for growers and as always, there will be opportunities from shorts and spreads.
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