How low can wheat go?, page-114

Barring a full-on El Nino event this season in Oz, I see generally docile prices for domestic growers (decile 6-7 for wheat, barley). The S&D for Australia-competitive nations doesn't support what some here are predicting in terms of price and hedge funds can only blow hot air into markets for so long, until they start to lock-in gains and CBOT sinks like a stone. If I had production certainty, I'd certainly be considering locking some away at decile 7 (not advice - just a general thought)

One saving grace to this could be the AUD, with each cent fall worth $~4 to the local price. Really depends on how low the AUD goes. The break of support today could be a bear trap; it could be the start of a large fall, towards gfc lows; or it could be the start of a move towards the 70c range that some have been predicting.