How low can wheat go?, page-112

Here an article i come across the other day. Its a few months old dated 15 april but is still relevant today. Sorry if already posted

"A US analyst has suggested world wheat prices could double this year, depending on weather conditions.

NSW grain trader Mark Martin said US analyst Shawn Hackett, who made the call, had a history of correctly predicting market movements."

"What he is suggesting is that wheat supply relative to global demand and global trade is the lowest in 50 years and this is one of the reasons he sees that prices could in fact double this year," Mr Martin said.

"He says he looks at a ratio of year end inventories to the level of wheat that's traded on the global scene...that's currently sitting at 1.2 per cent which is a 50-year low and the last time we saw it down near these lows was in 2008."

Mr Martin said prices could become very strong, despite improving weather conditions in the US and last year's high production.

"One of the other things that he's hinging his prophesy on is that the problems associated with the Black Sea, with the falling currencies in both Russia and the Ukraine means that farmers are likely to seriously cut back on inputs this year," he said.

" That's going to challenge their yields. This comes on top of a reduced winter crop planting last year."

He said it could be difficult for growers in north-west NSW to take advantage of the price rise, if it eventuates, with conditions in many parts still dry ahead of sowing.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/wheat-price-double-forecast-us-analyst/6392618

There is also an audio link on the page with the interview with Mark Martin on it worth listening to. In it he says wheat could get to 1200 cents if there is a few hiccups around the world with production.