Hot Copper Charting and Chat, page-358

Is this the right chart ??

Looks like a pretty serious announcement or event must happened on and after the 5th March.

If so, and in a nutshell, yes supply (selling) is being drawn out by the rise in price no doubt (most probably from stale holders 'getting out' I reckon), but the underlying chart is showing strength. But it does not look like a distribution - which generally comes after a sustained and substantial rise in price. This looks more like the initial gain.

At this point, what you have is repeated buying events (marked rise), followed by brief periods of consolidation (marked).
And any pullback in price (since 5th March) is very shallow and does not even really even test the previous bars lows very seriously.
And the volume on these downbars is generally reduced (eg- selling pressure is relatively low, and what selling there is, is being absorbed (or bought) fairly comfortably by the market at this point in time).

I would place the 'line in the sand' (LIS) at the true lows of the widespread upbar on high volume (arrowed), which is @1.5cps.
-While price trades inside this upbars bars range, I would call the price action as attempting to "consolidate the recent gains", which at this stage it seems to be doing fairly comfortably (note all the recent bars have higher lows).
-If price was to clearly slice and close below the LIS, I expect that supply is overwhelming demand, the current trend would then be vulnerable to change, and this price rise may fail.
-And a move above this bars high @2.8cps (perhaps even above its close @2.4cps), would suggest price continues to be bullish.

Keep reading the bars as they form, and add the new info to the unfolding story.
In particular note when the previous bars high or low is broken, it is generally telltale sign.

Finally, be aware that at some point some more serious profit taking will come in, it almost always does in this part of the market, so expect it, and look for it.





cheers