XTL 0.72% 4,672.7 s&p/asx 20

Hot Copper Charting and Chat, page-238

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    Steve Phillips put out another couple of short video's earlier this week.

    In this one (below) he was trading the ES (S&P 500 futures.
    It was the last hour of trade, and he was looking for a potential short set up.

    Steve likes the market to show him some 'intent' before committing to a trade, especially in the futures market (because if you get the timing wrong in this market, even if you end up being right overall, you can pretty quickly get sliced and diced by the professional side of the market).

    So he was looking for the market to breakdown below what he saw as a technically important level - and move down to close at at least 2716 on the half hour or one hour charts, for Steve that would show the markets 'intent' to move lower.
    (Steve puts out a daily video for his paid members, showing his important levels on the ES, Gold, and Euro currency)

    Then, once that level of 2716 was reached, if the market pushes back up to 2720/2721 (the important level), particularly if it showed any signs of weakness, like an upthrust or a no demand bar (which suggests an inability to sustainably recover the breakdown), he would start to short it.
    (and if price just kept going down from 2716, and did not test the breakdown, he would not have traded it - he never chases the market - price has to set up correctly)
    The set up is always to see 'intent' first, then begin shorting it from a higher level, once it appears like price will fail - and in this case adding to the position when further weakness was seen as the market proved it was not going to sustainably recover the lost ground)

    Effectively in Wyckoff terms, this is selling the test of a breakdown.....see the little image below.

    Steve Phillips short set up.png





    Finally, this looking for 'intent' works both ways, so when looking for a long entry, he also wants to see price breakout above an important level, enough to show intent, then wants to buy on a brief and shallow pullback, around the breakout level (kinda of like the test of a breakout)

    cheers
 
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4,672.7
Change
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