Hi @radx – below is my view of the APX chart. The same sort of TA can be applied to the WTC chart.
Wow there are so many ways of looking at a chart aren’t there! I think you have your charts in five different time frames. I use EOD and daily only charts, however I do include weekly timeframe versions of my momentum and “strong trend” indicators on my daily chart. The only fractal higher time frame check that I make is to see if weekly momentum is sloping in the direction of my trade. In the case of APX it is headed down at this stage. This doesn’t mean that the APX SP won’t go up tomorrow or the day after, just that for me and my system better bets on the long side probably reside elsewhere.
One of the most visually appealing and simple indicators that I always look at when considering a trade is the Multiple Moving Average indicator (MMA). A daily chart for APX with this indicator is shown below.
This is how I assess trend. My trend indicator uses the position of the MMAs, and the 50 SMA, relative to one another as well as to the Close to determine the current state of the trend. Using MMA theory the APX SP is in down trend but currently recovering from what I would call a strong downtrend. The strong down trend is determined using another different indicator. A bounce up of the SP from a lower level to the level of the longest period blue MMA is pretty usual and predictable. This is exactly what the APX SP is doing currently. If you have a look at the XJO I think you will find that this pattern is currently in play as well.
As I have mentioned in previous posts my significant S/R levels are determined by prior relatively high-volume bars. You can see these levels on the above chart. I also consider the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA to be levels to watch closely. As far as the future direction of the AJX SP is concerned, I would be waiting to see how it responds after hitting the MMA level mentioned above. If it turns down again I would expect a move down to somewhere like the 1020c level. If it breaks above the MMAs then I would expect a move to the 50 SMA where it may pause. Having said that, a move down to and bounce back up from the recent high-volume Closes around the 1120c level would suggest to me that a trend change back to up is on the cards. So for me it is wait and see scenario. Personally I would prefer to trade long stocks that have a MMA pattern similar to that of APX back in the period prior to July 2018.
Radx you are right about having a plan before going into a trade. But I am sure what you will or have already found out, you have to stick to the plan as well. Only in this way can you ever hope to realise your system edge. If your system includes a consideration of the “Macro index’s first” and you can show that this improves your system edge, then this becomes an integral part of your trade planning process. My system will be focused on very short term, 1 to 3 day, low margin CFD trades both long and short. Generally I find that the share prices of the ASX300 companies that this type of system focuses on in many cases lead both the general market and sector indexes. Hence, a consideration of the state of the indexes doesn’t form a component of my trade plans.
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