Hold or Buy, page-71

I must saying it is quite discouraging to see the share price drop everyday. That's probably the outcome of the ineligible holders sale, revision of Burwill offtake (reduced from 100% of our output to 80-100kpta), uncertainty of new offtakes for remaining output of 40ktpa and unclear ongoing shipments our from Esperance.

However, I think the worries are simply due to being uninformed. This current quarter - ending Mar 2019, we are almost certain to be reporting a positive profit, based on the following information.
1) Committed shipment to Bao Jiang (Burwill/Jiangte JV) of 18kt in Jan @ USD880/t with revenue of approx AUD$22m
2) Committed shipment to Bao Jiang of 10kt in Feb @ assumed USD750/t with revenue of approx AUD$10m (total = AUD$32m)
3) Guidance of 2019 cost of AUD800/t, average 13 days Jan production of 410tpd (projecting it to be 36,900t per quarter) AUD$29.5m cost
4) With just 2 committed shipment, Alliance will breakeven for Mar quarter (with AUD$2-3m of corporate cost per quarter)

Not to forget, with a forecast production of 36,900t in this quarter and shipping only 10,000t to Bao Jiang in Feb, whatever we managed to sell/ship out of the remaining 26,900t, will be our profits. Note
5) Bao Jiang has also committed to take at least 80 to 100ktpa (ie 20-25kt per quarter). Hence if they stick to their commitment, we should get another 10kt shipment in Mar 2019. That should give us another AUD10m in revenue. If they don't stick to committment, we can quickly sell them off the spot market - that's part of the tighter condition within the revised offtake agreement.
6) Thereafter, we still have another 16,900t of extra output that we can sell on spot market or to the potential offtaker(s). If the AAL Nanjing vessel is really shipping our products in early Feb, that will prove that we have no problem selling them to other parties. That's another AUD16-17m of revenue.

Of course, that's just projection and it may or may not pull through. Personally, I think it is reasonable assumptions that we can deliver.
Dark clouds will soon pass. Hang on folks.