As a new holder of AOE - purely invested for the possible stag profit from the Shell (and maybe others) bid- I think it is worth noting:
(1) Shell has increased its offer for AOE with Directors approval and the offer is now 'official'. At the current SP there is little, if any downside, for current holders. ie $4.70 + AOEI = $5.10 at the very least.
(2) History has shown time and again that these games are often protracted and can change even (literally) at the very last minute - with a higher offer or current share holders not accepting the tabled offer.
(3) Research has shown that those shareholders that hold out until the games are fully concluded (including extra time and penalty shootouts) maximise their returns vs. early acceptors or sellers on market.
I would suggest that all holders do exactly that - hold!
There are many scenarios that could play out and people should analyse the up and downside probabilities.
Unless there are pressing opportunities elsewhere it would be my suggestion to sit on our collective hands and wait:
(1) SP currently represents most likely absolute downside (2) Another bidder may emerge (3) Current holders may not vote in favour/ accept current offer
IMO, this game is still to play out and I would not think that Shell truly expects to walk away with AOE's Queensland gas et al for $4.70.
Deep breaths and some patience may yield another dollop for investors.
The one fact that appears certain now is that AOE will not be an eventual Australian CSG operator in its current form... but that doesn't mean there is not still some money to be made :)
Cheers John
AOE Price at posting:
$5.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
