hilcorp - the wildcard

Often under farmin arrangements there is a stand still arrangement where the farminee can't make hostile takeover attempts, but when a company is in play this can change. I would expect that AWE will raise its bid to a level that ADI cannot reasonably reject, at which point it would be incumbent upon directors to shop around for a better deal. The most likely scenario for a better deal would be to have a friendly takeover by Hilcorp. While AWE has a blocking stake that may circumvent most bids, a suitable bid may see an arrangement where AWE accepts. This could lead to Hilcorp supporting AWE in shale efforts elsewhere such as Perth Basin. In essence I believe this is as much about technology exposure as it is about making a direct profit from taking over ADI.

A three way merger between the juniors would also be a good way to increase value for all participants, making it a more attractive takeover target for a larger company.

Bottom line is that this is far from over.