Nasa,
you could be both right and wrong. This is why the stock market is interesting.
I believe you're right in saying the bubble is at the beginning.. I actually think the graphene bubble hasn't even started yet. Two companies came out with graphene news within the last month and neither has increased in price. Considering MRF is meant to be 'producing' later this year, that's a pretty clear signal that nobody really cares at this stage.
Is that likely to change? yes.
Will that affect share price? most likely.
Does MRF have the management to capitalise on this opportunity and follow through? I'm not sure, their record isn't great and they have an EXTREMELY tough mining situation.
Furthermore, these questions aren't even really crucial, as the bubble will happen eventually (your research is not wrong there) but its more a question of when.
I think one thing I have learned coming through several bubbles is opportunity cost. What is holding all these companies long term, while their SP declines on low volume going to cost you in opportunities to increase capital in the mean-time.
You will know when the bubble truly starts, it will have its own signals. Why not grab onto the current gravy train, build capital and keep these in your peripheral vision awaiting those smoke signals?
Graphite has peaked and is coming down the other side, the lack of runs and the decidely dis-interested market reaction on TON and MNS proved that. The market backed its winner early (SYR), and never looked back.
Is there a logical reason to back SYR over TON?
from a resource quality and quantity. Nope.
From a geopolitical, permitting or relationship point of view? nope.
From a management point of view - yes.
SYR has proven management, 3 of their directors have built, raised cash for or negotiated multi-billion dollar projects. Can't say the same for TON. So the market is betting they get it done right and get it done first. Market can and has been wrong before, and will be wrong again.
But the easy money for graphite has been made.
Tech mk 2 bubble (DT thread name) has peaked IMO, after seeing PSY and AZK rise to the lofty 300million dollar range on nothing of substance, the market is taking a much harsher view towards valuations. Many of the market darlings are now falling into the background. Much like the first bubble, the market finally realised that monetisation was not a quick process for many great ideas.. and despite 'patents' there are more than 1 way to skin a cat (so to speak) and the barriers to entry in that world are high.
I'd expect there will be a few more winners as the bubble unwinds, but they will be the stocks that can prove early and growing (reliably) cashflow, don't need to raise cash, or have a business edge in the asian sector.
Next bubble (the interest part of this long-winded thought process)...
I've got my eye on a few key commodities.. coking coal, lithium and uranium.. all for very different reasons.
When will they happen? Coking coal - 2017. Signals are firing now, coking coal worldwide production has decreased by 6% while demand has risen (8%) and iron ore production has risen 12%..
Lithium - starting early next year, Tesla will need a lot of lithium for their power walls and electric car ramp up with the giga-factory, despite whatever new techs are in the future, the need for lithium will be short term and critical..
Uranium - late 2018/early 2019.. China is in the process of looking at 324 nuclear plants and design is starting currently, knowing the length of standard design procurement and commissioning, it could start anywhere betweeen 2018 and 2020.. uranium production world wide has been smashed in recent years with no new projects and many producers shutting down under operating costs..
Graphene IMO will be 2020 and beyond, graphite products haven't even hit the shelves yet, graphene can be produced by still has scale issues, production issues and optimisation to go... it could come earlier because of people 'anticipating' the demand.. but either way if you have a list of 'graphene companies' and some basic background, you'll see the signals before the bubble starts.
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