I think thats often the explanation for the ones that turn out...

I think thats often the explanation for the ones that turn out well!

I have thought about what you posted and how it informs my entry into REH, I think that I have bought in when its at the incorrect end of the cycle and I am going to consider selling out and waiting for a better entry in a sector downturn.

I have made that mistake more than once - at least with buying quality businesses I have generally found that there is not much risk of loss of capital if and when I change my mind!

Its certainly an error of judgement I want to make less often!

Of course another path is to simply add to my position in a downturn and average the price down, and that is also worthy of consideration.

Its one of the reasons I run a decision journal, so I can consider all the possible actions over time and try to come to a more informed decision. Doing nothing is often best in the short term!