Has REH peaked?, page-13

I think if our aim is clear thinking then we always have to be willing to question. A refusal to do so, and blind admiration, is a slippery and dangerous slope in investing.

So here is a question I'm asking myself. When I bought into REH in Oct 2015, I did a whole bunch of fancy(ish) analysis and decided that REH was probably a sound investment, at that time, on the basis that it was at the tail end of years of capex, and that this was poised to start paying off. It was a lovely narrative.

But now, looking back, I'm thinking, all that revenues have done since is follow the building cycle. So really, I'm thinking, I'm just a dumb schmuck that got lucky.

Lesson: One can analyse and prognosticate until the cows come home, but there's no substitute for buying (especially a quality business with a future) when the sector is down on its knees, as it will be again.