Has anyone got the full article to the Australian?, page-7

Well NTA does appear to be the common yardstick for the industry with many documented sales in recent times in excess of NTA (LLC, INA and GTY). The current SP to NTA for the NZ companies is still well north of 100% with just one exception being Metflifecare at around 74% (AOG is at 43%). Remember, when the Board announced the appointment of advisors to 'close the gap between price and NTA' of 15 August 2018, the gap was 44% to NTA. Right now that gap has widened to 57%!

Even EGH (the baby of the field with a MC of just $67m) and with largely regional assets considered inferior, has a SP/NTA of 97% with substantial shareholders (Folkstone and Tribeca Investments) topping up in 1HFY19 at around this figure!  Yep, they invested into a company with red ink in FY18 and which had just undergone a bitter board dispute.

For the directors to let AOG go at much less than NTA would surely be a dereliction of their dutues and responsibilities. Look commercially, we won't get $3.92...a haircut might be necessary to move the class action along. There may even be a negative valuation of fair value of assets in FY19, given the property market slow down and the average days to sell an ILU now at well over 200 days and rising.

Mulpha has been in the wings for such a long time, they will want to get their reward. As a company they have a mentality of investing in property and then never selling - will they look to acquire AOG assets at less than value and privatise them via Malaysia? Then there is the very much challenged DMF business model under which Aveo operates - and is the highest charger! Surely the company will be broken up and assets separated into partnerships so as to allow it to compete with the lifestyle industry portion of the market as well as the retirement and healthcare industries.  

The signs are indicating that something is forthcoming...the shorters have reduced their positions to under 3% and the SP is moving north.