Hartleys Research Report - 12 month target 5.6c, 2021 for 11c, page-5

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wombat777

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02/03/19

21:32

Post #: 37632619
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Originally posted by Oxytorus ↑

Jeez Hartley's, tell us what you really think!?!

Must say I'm not following their numbers at a glance but they seem to be pretty cleared eyed on their assumptions which I appreciate.Will be interesting to try and replicate their models to then play with a few figures.

Agree, AU$100m adds up to a whopping WC allowance.

Key points that don't feel right -

SOTP valuation $515m (x17 current) but fully diluted to 11cps (x4)

NPV of base case is 11cps but 13cps in 12mths (18%+)?

M1 only = NPV 6cps; M1 + M2 = 6cps, ie. M2 NPV = $0?

Available exploration value of $75m but M1 & M2 only worth $270m, B1 & B2 only $290m?

M2, B1 & B2 will require equity funding, outside of exercised options, with M1 payback period of <2yrs indicating debt free by 2021?

Most interesting part out of the report for me was the note that SYR sales basket is currently 80% fines, a figure I've been keeping an eye out for but haven't seen yet. Explains a lot of their under performance and highlights the biggest hurdle in the industry being selling the flake. Right now demand just isn't there but forecasts say it will be.

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It’s $50M working capital they are suggesting. Perhaps to add extra contingency.

Market - That’s the reason Montepuez Stage 2 was shifted back 1 year. Give the demand time to play out.

Other graphite companies are taking a long time to achieve offtakes. Buyers market?

Glad BAT have their 4 Offtakes.
BAT Price at posting: 2.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Hartleys Research Report - 12 month target 5.6c, 2021 for 11c, page-5

Top Stories

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

Tambourah chases gold veins and mineralisation extension with drilling

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

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