Jeez Hartley's, tell us what you really think!?! Must say I'm...

Jeez Hartley's, tell us what you really think!?! 

Must say I'm not following their numbers at a glance but they seem to be pretty cleared eyed on their assumptions which I appreciate.Will be interesting to try and replicate their models to then play with a few figures. 

Agree, AU$100m adds up to a whopping WC allowance. 

Key points that don't feel right -

• SOTP valuation $515m (x17 current) but fully diluted to 11cps (x4)
• NPV of base case is 11cps but 13cps in 12mths (18%+)?
• M1 only = NPV 6cps; M1 + M2 = 6cps, ie. M2 NPV = $0?
• Available exploration value of $75m but M1 & M2 only worth $270m, B1 & B2 only $290m?
• M2, B1 & B2 will require equity funding, outside of exercised options, with M1 payback period of <2yrs indicating debt free by 2021?

Most interesting part out of the report for me was the note that SYR sales basket is currently 80% fines, a figure I've been keeping an eye out for but haven't seen yet. Explains a lot of their under performance and highlights the biggest hurdle in the industry being selling the flake. Right now demand just isn't there but forecasts say it will be.