great chance, page-8

You won't make $20m this year.

But even if you did, with a mine life of 4 to 5 years, a P/E ratio of 4.2 is too high as on a DCF basis you'lll never get the share price back. The other ore (after the 7.5Moz)is much lower grade than what they are processing today.

In fact, the ore grades will drop off over the five years, so costs will rise as the pit gets deeper, and revenues will fall.

On the bright side, silver should be trading a lot higher, especially in AUD terms. But as we are likely to have a stock market crash before that, I expect AYN to be a lot lower before it goes higher.