good read from robin, page-11

Why you should look twice at an ugly duckling metal
BY ALEC GIMURTU

Tungsten just doesn't have the sex appeal that made investors fall for the rare earth story. But maybe that's its trump card, considering the boom/bust cycle that swept rare earths didn't touch tungsten's slow, steady price increases. Analyst Mark Seddon of Tungsten Market Research has long been watching the often ignored metal, and asserts that tungsten is a harder sell, but a better buy for investors. In this The Metals Report interview, Seddon outlines tungsten's finer points and suggests miners are poised to reap rewards.

The Metals Report: Mark, what is the supply situation with tungsten?

Mark Seddon: China accounts for approximately 80% of global tungsten supply, so it's the clear dominant player when it comes to both tungsten and rare earth elements (REEs), both of which are on most national lists of strategic or critical materials. The Chinese government has recently taken an active role in managing supply for a broad range of strategic metals, including tungsten, through export quotas, mining quotas and licensing systems. These actions have reduced the availability of ores, concentrates and intermediate products available for export. China's goal is to add value to their natural resources by serving its own domestic markets rather than export these materials—and refining and manufacturing jobs along with it. That dynamic applies to both tungsten and REEs.

Another similarity is the fairly significant price rises in both markets. But while REE price hikes have been labeled a bubble, that's not the case with tungsten, simply because there has not been a lot of interest from the investment community. It is possible that a bubble in tungsten will happen in the future as investors see prices for products rising and that feeds a self-reinforcing investment case and increases investor interest. But we are not anywhere near that now.

There are notable differences between the two markets as well. One of the big differences between tungsten and REEs is their applications. Tungsten is a very industrial metal. It's mainly used as a carbide or "hard metal" in drilling and cutting tools used in heavy industry. Tungsten is not sexy in that sense. It's a very solid industrial market. This contrasts with REEs, which are used in a lot of newer, high-tech applications that are much easier for the investment community to make into an exciting story.

TMR: So, the tungsten narrative is a little more staid.

MS: Absolutely. Here in the U.K., the national press was running articles about REE production in China and how the Chinese might cut off supplies. The result would be no more wind turbines. That narrative is the type that gets lots of attention. Meanwhile, tungsten is used in industrial applications that people don't get as excited about. The image of the market is quite different. Another thing to keep in mind is that tungsten is just a single element with a few critical applications, whereas REEs include a number of different elements with many applications.

TMR: How large is the tungsten market?

MS: I evaluate it in terms of volume. The global market is approximately 80,000 tons of tungsten metal content. When looking at supply/demand statistics, it is important to make sure that you are using consistent units. For clarity, I use tungsten metal content (W) rather than WO3 or other intermediaries.

TMR: Overall, is the tungsten market growing?

MS: The largest segment of the market is in cemented carbides or hard metals, which probably accounts for about a quarter of the market. Tungsten demand growth, over time, has consistently outperformed GDP. In the mid- to late eighties, for example, tungsten demand increased up to 8–10% a year when global GDP was growing at between 4–5%. The historical use of tungsten metal in mill products like filaments for light bulbs accounts for around 15% of the market. The demise of the incandescent light bulb is not a major problem for the tungsten market, as tungsten is still used in some of the newer light bulbs.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/08/21/why-you-should-look-twice-at-an-ugly-duckling-meta?ref=hp