Originally posted by newbie2016
Albemarle 2018 first quarter net sale,
Lithium: $298.0 million
Bromine specialties: 225.6 million
https://www.albemarle.com/news/albe...th-in-first-quarter-on-strong-lithium-results
ASN currently has a few options to be a mine producer,
1. Produce lithium only first.
2. Produce one of other minerals first, I prefer Bromine or Iodine.
3. Produce lithium and one of other minerals first, the more minerals, the more funding, so, lithium plus one mineral, the rest later might be more realistic.
1. Lithium carbonate price usd13, 000/ton, if production 10,000 ton per year, yearly sales revenue = 13,000 *10,000 = USD 130,000,000
2. Bromine price USD5,000/ton, if production 30,000 ton per year, yearly sales revenue = 5,000 * 30 000 = USD150,000,000 (choose 30,000 ton, as big players' yearly production is around 130,000 ton, so, 30,000 seems reasonable).
3. Iodine price usd26, 500/ton, if production 5,000 ton per year, yearly sales revenue = usd1,325,000,000
a. Lithium price is flat currently, the trend is not optimastic, while Bromine and Iodine market is predicting increase, Bromine price keep going up.
b. Even I believe Lilac's technology, while the new tech always means high risk. On other hand, the technology of extracting Bromine and Iodine are established tech, so, it might be more safe.
3. How much the fund to build lithium only, Bromine only, or Iodine only full production plant respectively need to be considered as well.
My conclusion, from above analysis, yearly production, lithium 10,000, Bromine 30,000 ton, Iodine 5,000 ton, which have similar sales revenue, considering the technology risk, funding risk, and the future mineral price risk, which option is the best one for ASN, might need you and other shareholders, or even ASN mgt to think about. For me, choosing Bromine to be the first mineral to produce might not be a bad option.
Furthermore, produce all minerals altogether, while this is a hard option due to the fund issue, if fund sufficient, I would like to see all minerals to be produced.
