We can reasonably expect the presentation to be conservative and to leave room for 'problems'.
Hilcorp is all cashed up and they seem to be keen to get on with the drilling.
ADI is cashed up and AUT does not look to be under strain until it has to start paying 25% of Longhorn costs and 30% of Ipanema costs.
EME will have proportionately higher revenue income especially if Kowalik is sorted out - Hilcorp probably still has obligations here before moving on the new drilling post free-carry.
TCEI is now considerably diluted down on S/L - about 20% - so cash might not be an issue for them.
The constraint may be rig & crews availability, if there is one.
But we shouldn't so quickly assume that the drilling and completion timing is more reliable than a rail timetable. With the TCEI drilling we were always wondering when the next bit of kit was going to be lost down the hole. Hilcorp may be doing magic out there but I don't suppose that the geology has changed.
The best guide to the forward plan will be the TRRC permit applications.
ADI Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
