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97.0¢ zenith energy limited

I suspect there should be another price spike, contingent upon...

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ShanghaiBobby

424 Posts.

52

22/02/19

09:39

Post #: 37526719
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Originally posted by stan255: ↑

There are a few reasons why I think ZEN is trading at current prices:
1. Ok Tedi's contract is expiring next year and that is $18.6m. That's 36% of ZEN's revenue. The good news here is the EBITDA margin for MOM contracts is much lower than BOO which I believe is around 12%.

Taking a 12% EBITDA margin, if we lose the contract, EBITDA will reduce by around 12.2%.
The biggest factor on whether the extension will be extended is based on the mine life which I think will get extended.

"The company’s previous base case predicted that operations would continue to 2024, while the target case anticipated the mine life would be extended to 2030. Mine began gold production in 1984 and copper production in 1987." - https://www.businessadvantagepng.co...ave-extended-mine-life-says-ceo-peter-graham/

2. Daisy Milano and Kundana contracts are expiring within the next 3 years. That is 26MW of BOO contracts.

3. This is a slow growth industry. Energy Developments won just 2 contracts between 2010 and 2015. That isn't even one contract per year.

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I suspect there should be another price spike, contingent upon renewal of OK Tedi.

ZEN Price at posting: 71.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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