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  1. 566 Posts.
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    If the Fed don't meddle too much during the next recession then the system could continue for a little longer. But if they lower interest rates to try and save the stock market then it won't be good for the USD in the long run. The problem is with a debased currency, continual growth and stimulus is all that matters to the government and the masses (because they don't actually know what's good for themselves).

    If the government continues to raise rates and reduce their balance sheet while the economy is collapsing then I will take my hat of and have more trust in the system. Let's see if they have the balls to do what they did in the 1920's

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920–21

    Depression of 1920–21 - Wikipedia

    According to a 1989 analysis by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, the recession of 1920–21 was the result of an unnecessary contractionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve Bank.[13] Paul Krugman agrees that high interest rates due to the Fed's effort to fight inflation caused the problem. This did not cause a deficiency in aggregate demand but in aggregate supply. Once the Fed relaxed its monetary policy, the economy rapidly recovered.[14]

    Additionally, Allan H. Meltzer suggests that since the U.S. was on the Gold standard, the flight of gold from hyper-inflationary Europe to the U.S. raised the nominal stock of high-powered base money. This ended the deflation and contributed to the economic recovery.[15]

    James Grant discusses in his 2014 book, The Forgotten Depression, 1921, why the depression of 1920–1921 was relatively short compared to the 21st century's economic recession and the following economic downturn that started in 2007. "The essential point about the long ago downturn of 1920–1921 is that it was kind of a last demonstration of how a price mechanism works and the last governmentally unmediated business cycle downturn, meaning it was the last one that the government didn't attempt to treat with fiscal intervention with much lower interest rates. In fact the FED, then still wet behind the ears as it only had been founded in 1914, actually raised rates in the face of a truly brutal deflation."[16]

    Thomas Woods, a proponent of the Austrian School, argues that President Harding's laissez-faire economic policies during the 1920–21 recession, combined with a coordinated aggressive policy of rapid government downsizing, had a direct influence on the rapid and widespread private-sector recovery.[17] Woods argued that, as there were massive distortions in private markets due to government economic influence related to demands of World War I, an equally massive correction to the distortions needed to occur as quickly as possible to realign investment and consumption with the new peacetime economic environment.
    In a 2011 article, Daniel Kuehn, a proponent of Keynesian economics, questions many of the assertions Woods makes about the 1920–21 recession.[18] Kuehn notes the following:

    • the most substantial downsizing of government was attributable to the Wilson administration, and occurred well before the onset of the 1920–21 recession.
    • the Harding administration raised revenues in 1921 by expanding the tax base considerably at the same time that it lowered rates.
    • Woods underemphasizes the role the monetary stimulus played in reviving the depressed economy and that, since the 1920–21 recession was not characterized by a deficiency in aggregate demand, fiscal stimulus was unwarranted.

 
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