Here’s something very interesting to ponder; Top of page three...

Here’s something very interesting to ponder;

Top of page three of oil search’s 2012 fourth quarterly report, top of page 3.

http://www.oilsearch.com/Media/docs...12-40d7e0e7-2cfb-48af-bd48-4eb8040d0dd6-0.pdf

Note: Pandora PRL 38 (formally PRL1) Oil search owned 24%

“This will be partially offset by an impairment charge of
approximately US$20.0million after tax (US$23.8million pre-tax) related to the expiry of the PRL1 Pandora licence, which reaches the end of its 15 year licence term in February 2013.”

So the pre-tax value of 100% Pandora at the time according to this credible measure (without resource upgrade) 800BCF, was just on $100million US dollars. (February 2013)

Exchange Rate, February 2013, 1 USD= 1.30 AUD
Current Exchange Rate 1USD=1.40 AUD
LNG Spot at the time, approximately $14
Current LNG spot, approximately $7

Cott owns 40%
Take away 23.3% of 40%= 30.7% net to COTT (assuming commercialisation)
Adjust initial valuation to current exchange rate and spot Asia Lng price

$100million USD x 1.40AUD= $140 million AUD
$140 million AUD x 0.5 (factor adjustment for lower spot compared to Feb 2013)= $70 Million AUD

$70AUD x 30.7%= $21.5 million net to Cott post commercialisation agreement.
(approx 28 cents per share.)

or

$70AUD x 40%= $28 million total share without commercialisation, standalone to Cott.
(approx 36 cents per share.)

So there you go. Now all that is needed is a doubling of the spot price, or a doubling of the resources (more likely) and you can see the share price valuation approximately;
41 cents and 53 cents per share respectively assuming a resource upgrade of about (1.5TCF)

At least we have a valid baseline that we can work with now...