Here’s something very interesting to ponder;
Top of page three of oil search’s 2012 fourth quarterly report, top of page 3.
http://www.oilsearch.com/Media/docs...12-40d7e0e7-2cfb-48af-bd48-4eb8040d0dd6-0.pdf
Note: Pandora PRL 38 (formally PRL1) Oil search owned 24%
“This will be partially offset by an impairment charge of
approximately US$20.0million after tax (US$23.8million pre-tax) related to the expiry of the PRL1 Pandora licence, which reaches the end of its 15 year licence term in February 2013.”
So the pre-tax value of 100% Pandora at the time according to this credible measure (without resource upgrade) 800BCF, was just on $100million US dollars. (February 2013)
Exchange Rate, February 2013, 1 USD= 1.30 AUD
Current Exchange Rate 1USD=1.40 AUD
LNG Spot at the time, approximately $14
Current LNG spot, approximately $7
Cott owns 40%
Take away 23.3% of 40%= 30.7% net to COTT (assuming commercialisation)
Adjust initial valuation to current exchange rate and spot Asia Lng price
$100million USD x 1.40AUD= $140 million AUD
$140 million AUD x 0.5 (factor adjustment for lower spot compared to Feb 2013)= $70 Million AUD
$70AUD x 30.7%= $21.5 million net to Cott post commercialisation agreement.
(approx 28 cents per share.)
or
$70AUD x 40%= $28 million total share without commercialisation, standalone to Cott.
(approx 36 cents per share.)
So there you go. Now all that is needed is a doubling of the spot price, or a doubling of the resources (more likely) and you can see the share price valuation approximately;
41 cents and 53 cents per share respectively assuming a resource upgrade of about (1.5TCF)
At least we have a valid baseline that we can work with now...
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- BDM
- Going Forward
Going Forward, page-5
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add BDM (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
10.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $191.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
10.5¢ | 11.0¢ | 10.5¢ | $19.26K | 180.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 1036456 | 10.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
11.0¢ | 812633 | 6 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 06/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
BDM (ASX) Chart |