Goetz partners.., page-7

Hi Ahjay

I've only looked at their commentary on AIPAC thus far.

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Positive outcome would increase our TP by 44% Efti accounts for > 90% of our TP. Positive PFS data from the AIPAC trial would increase our TP by 44% to A$0.110, based on increasing the probability of success in mBC to 65% (from 40%), and could form the basis of a conditional marketing approval.

We forecast approval and launch in Europe in 2020E (one year later in the US) and peak sales of c.$820m in mBC alone. Our model assumes that Immutep signs an attractive licensing deal with a large pharma partner in H2/2019E that includes a $50m upfront, up to $1bn in total milestones payments, and 15% - 21% royalties on sales.

Safety run-in and previous Phase I/II trial showed encouraging efficacy signals The safety run-in of the AIPAC trial (15 patients) was completed and the data presented at ASCO 2017, showing a partial response rate (“PR”) of 47% and disease control rate (“DCR”) of 87%. This is consistent with data from a previously conducted 30-patient Phase I/II trial with a similar design and dosing schedule as the AIPAC trial (Brignone et al. 2010), where the ORR was 50% and the DCR 90%.

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I was pleased to see their confidence that, if PFS measures up to the levels indicated by previous indications, it could be on the Euro market sometime in 2020 and US/elsewhere by 2021. That does confirm a typical approval timeframe I heard from a friend, who was previously very high up in the EMA.

As to their numbers for peak sales and milestone payments, dunno mate. I guess they've used some nearology from recent deals to produce those.
You know me. I tend to take a conservative view and manage my own expectations. 
I'm always a bit wary of bullish projections from analysists who are under contract. They generally big things up to keep on the good side of their client.


I have a good bottle of wine on standby in the cellar, but the cork won't come out until we get over the line.
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