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Unhedged 32% CoS is excellent in terms of oil and gas explorations. 40% of drill explorations are successfull, in your formula of how you calculated that 32% was likely to fail, you need to consider the 40% success rate for wild cat wells. When you add it to your formula then you will see the CoS is much better.

It is important to note that, most wildcat CoS is 10% to 20%....

Additionaly add the region and the very large discoveries in neighbouring acarage...

Do the maths then please tell us all what the chances are to fail...