Global iron demand is set to grow

1. Chinese infrastructure not finished yet: "The train network is set to double by 2020 and is a big part of China's economic strategy - enabling companies to trade directly with Central Asia and Europe." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28299462
2. Chinese population growing at around 6M ppl per year (currently).http://www.indexmundi.com/china/population_growth_rate.html
3. Steel intensity in China is currently about 800kg/person/year and may hit a peak in 2017 at 740Mt (requiring about 1200Mt IO, about 200 - 300Mt more than currently). http://www.copyright link/p/markets...d_to_hit_peak_steel_in_UFKK8qVabe1kloqkYAhntO
4. The much aired "ghost cities" is a huge furphy: China's housing market is dominated by privateers working at the high end. ie, apartment that have reached saturation because of high prices and a credit squeeze. While those prices are coming down, the market for affordable housing is still in undersupply. http://www.ntd.tv/en/programs/news-...sing-market-may-collapse-without-bailout.html
5. 800M Chinese still live below China's poverty line - usually peasants in the western two thirds of the country. This is a major focus for the Xi government.
6. IO demand in China in 2007 was about 600Mt, pushed by a GDP growth of circa 11% (ie, say, a 66Mtpa growth in IO demand). IO demand is now about 950Mt which, at 7.5% GDP growth, translates to an IO demand growth of 71Mtpa. Predictions by western analysts (usually USA trading banks) that IO growth will not match GDP growth have been shown to be completely wrong to date.
7. Indian IO demand is set to increase substantially. The published 15Mtpa IO imports that India reports for the past year is not the whole story. Indian exports IO under a canalisation system wherein high grade IO is banned for export. Consequently, mines often diluted their ores to below 60% Fe to bypass the canalising laws. With domestic demand now increasing, those mines can now more easily sell internally and the majority of exports to China have ceased. This suggests a much higher growth in India's domestic steel industry than is being reflected in its export/import data. With Modi's declaration that India will achieve 300Mt of steel production by 2024 (from current 81Mtpa), Indian imports of IO are set to increase. http://www.commodityonline.com/news...output-to-300mt-in-10years-60574-3-60575.html