Boondog, I see your 19th suspension has been lifted...

Boondog, I see your 19th suspension has been lifted again...

Rocky, yes that's my point. KZL is a long-term trade. I bought 3 houses and had to wait at least 3-5 years to make solid returns. One thing you will notice about the doom and gloom is that the doom is not very convincing. We keep bouncing up and down and all on a poor economic outlook but not a catastrophic one.

Next year China will ease monetary policy. They have to, to keep the plebs from revolting. I remember my economics professor 20 years ago telling me one simple rule. Ignore the headlines, follow the cycles. Specifically he said, that boom and bust cycles occur every 5 years, no matter what. We joked at the time and called it human egonomics. I would put the start of the last bust at late 2007, which means the first half of 2012 could be a year of consolidation, slow growth but also a year when serious money starts to flow back into the market and a year when American firms unlock 2 trillion dollars of cash sitting on their books to invest in hiring, acquisitions and new ventures.

Big companies simply put are starving the market of cash until they are ready to put it work and pounce on what companies are left. This causes prices across the board generally to fall. This behaviour could continue 3-4 times until June 2012 but even they have to book profits and close shorts, which is why we see months like October, which are false reversals, that should be sold into and probably explains why KZL delayed the sale of Lounge Lizard until early next year.

At any rate, Macro events and headlines won't determine the furture for KZL. I prefer to focus on Zinc demand and supply and copper. The price, demand, supply and production variables are far more telling as to what will occur in 2012.