i think the point appears to be that it isnt nearly as much of a...

i think the point appears to be that it isnt nearly as much of a staple - at least in terms of stability of earnings - anymore.

the market continues to feel its way toward understanding what a new sustainable paradigm is for ccl - and looks like it has one more step shift down to me.

ie as of yest its priced on 20x pe ($22.6m half year npat x2) - which is a premium valuation for a very large blue chip defensive industrial.

mgt flagged further profit downgrade for next half and possibly into next year.

to offset this they appear to be doing cost out + hoping they can get more from indonesia.

So - short term at least - even in a rational market - i think you are looking at a reduction in SP once the full year NPAT is revised.

With that as a backdrop - i think you would be unlikely to see the stock perform with the same defensiveness as say WOW in any macro move down.

but they are your dollars.

i just think there's a lot of relatively unsophisticated yield chasing support in this stock price - that always burns away if valuations dont support it.